# [Macro index] Brent drops 13.1% in a week as risk-asset conditions score 51

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/50122
Published: 2026-11-06T13:43:57.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-06T13:43:57.000Z
Section: Investing

> Brent fell 13.1% over the week while the macro index held at a neutral 51. Money growth and liquidity offset pressure from elevated yields and dollar strength.

A sharp weekly decline in oil prices and easing market volatility left the broader environment for risk assets neutral, with monetary growth offsetting pressure from elevated yields and dollar strength.

The macro index stood at 51 out of 100 on November 6, a neutral reading. It averages five components scored from 0 to 100: US M2, Federal Reserve net liquidity, dollar strength, market volatility and the yield curve. Higher readings indicate more favorable conditions for risk assets.

Liquidity and money supply provided support, while interest rates and the dollar remained constraints. Weekly declines of 3.6% in WTI and 13.1% in Brent also put oil prices in focus as a variable affecting inflation and interest-rate conditions.

## Liquidity offsets pressure from yields and the dollar

The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.90%, down 0.04 percentage points from 4.94% a week earlier. The two-year yield was little changed at 4.58%, against 4.56%. The spread between the two narrowed from 0.38 to 0.32 percentage points. The yield-curve component scored 55.

Yields remained elevated over a longer horizon. The two-year yield was 0.19 percentage points below its month-earlier level, while the 10-year yield was 0.38 percentage points lower. Compared with year-earlier readings of 3.57% and 4.11%, they were higher by 1.01 and 0.79 percentage points, respectively.

The 10-year real yield, which adjusts for inflation, stood at 2.64% on November 4, little changed from 2.67% a week earlier and 0.83 percentage points above 1.81% a year earlier. Lower real yields can reduce the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no interest, such as Bitcoin and gold.

The dollar index was broadly steady at 101.89, compared with 101.88 a week earlier. It was 0.3% below its month-earlier reading of 102.24 and 2.2% above 99.73 a year earlier. Dollar strength scored 30, the weakest of the five components, under a framework that treats a weaker dollar as more favorable for risk assets.

The VIX volatility index fell 14.5% over the week to 16.61 from 19.42, but remained 10.1% above its month-earlier level of 15.08. It was near the middle of its two-year range. The volatility component, which assigns higher scores to calmer conditions, scored 57.

Fed net liquidity stood at $5.79 trillion on November 4, up $45 billion, or 0.8%, over the week. A $42.6 billion decline in the Treasury General Account, from $999.7 billion to $957.2 billion, accounted for much of the increase. A lower Treasury cash balance is treated as releasing liquidity into the market. Fed assets totaled $6.75 trillion and reverse repo balances were $0.2 billion. Net liquidity remained 0.8% below its level of $5.84 trillion 90 days earlier, giving the component a score of 36.

US M2 reached $23.41 trillion in September 2026, up 5.7% from $22.15 trillion a year earlier and 0.5% from $23.30 trillion a month earlier. The seasonally adjusted measure is published monthly by the Fed. M2 scored 72, the strongest reading among the five components.

## Oil's sharp weekly decline adds another variable

Oil recorded the week's most pronounced move. As of November 3, WTI stood at $99.64 a barrel, down 3.6% from $103.37 a week earlier. Brent fell 13.1% to $107.03 a barrel from $123.10.

Both benchmarks remained substantially above year-earlier levels: WTI was up 61.3% and Brent 62.7%. Sustained oil-price increases can add inflation pressure and affect the path of interest rates, making energy prices a variable for risk-asset investors.

The Nasdaq index stood at 24,315.00 on November 5, down 7.1% over the week. Bitcoin traded at $75,504 after falling 3.8% over the preceding seven days.

[Editor's note] The macro index averages five measures converted to scores from 0 to 100: annual M2 growth, the 90-day change in Fed net liquidity, dollar strength, market volatility and the yield spread. Dollar strength and volatility are assessed by their relative positions within their two-year ranges. Higher scores indicate more favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.