# Kalshi Cuts Anthropic IPO Odds Before December to 57% Amid AI Sell-Off By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/51594 Published: 2026-11-08T12:33:56.000Z Updated: 2026-11-08T12:33:56.000Z Section: Investing > The chance of an announcement before January also fell to 68%. U.S. stocks were mixed Friday after steep losses the day before. Kalshi’s short-term market put the chance of Anthropic announcing an initial public offering before December at 57%, a move that coincided with an AI-stock sell-off after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. A second short-term contract put the chance of an announcement before January at 68%. Both contracts track announcement timing, not when Anthropic shares might begin trading. The percentages reflect market expectations and can change; they do not establish that Anthropic has set an IPO date. The political backdrop included Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat who campaigned for tighter rules on data center development. In remarks Thursday, Hinojosa said, “We will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections.” The Nasdaq Composite ended Thursday more than 10% below its recent high, a level that put the index in correction territory. The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,800 points, or 3.4%. On Friday morning, the Nasdaq gained 1.3% and the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Dow fell 0.2%. The current readings follow [an earlier short-term Anthropic market ahead of its Nov. 1 deadline](). During most of October, that contract assigned almost no chance to an announcement before its deadline. The December and January contracts cover later windows, and their odds do not establish a company decision. A separate Kalshi market for a qualifying announcement by the end of 2026 put Anthropic at 75% on Oct. 19. It was the only company above 50% among 23 companies with open contracts. That market uses formal milestones: the SEC declaring a Form S-1 effective, IPO pricing, or an exchange assigning the shares a ticker. A confidential S-1 filing alone does not meet its threshold. The [separate 2026 announcement market]() therefore measures a different outcome from the shorter-term contracts. ## Links in this article - [an earlier short-term Anthropic market ahead of its Nov. 1 deadline](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/41452) - [separate 2026 announcement market](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/35068)