# Polymarket Puts Hegseth at 31% in Cabinet Departure Market By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/51637 Published: 2026-11-08T14:26:48.000Z Updated: 2026-11-08T14:26:48.000Z Section: Investing > The contract had nearly $190,000 in total volume, while traders put the chance of no Cabinet departure before 2027 at about 27%. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth led a Polymarket contract tracking who might leave President Donald Trump’s Cabinet next, with about 31% odds as of Friday morning, Nov. 6 (ET). White House chief of staff Susie Wiles was at 24%, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio had 8%. Traders put the chance of no Cabinet departure before 2027 at about 27%. The contract had nearly $190,000 in total trading volume. The shift followed the Nov. 3 midterms. Before the vote, prediction market traders had favored Democrats to win both chambers of Congress and were highly accurate in forecasting several key Senate races. Trading in [2026 congressional prediction markets]() had reached $221 million by Sept. 30. Incoming Democratic majorities have promised investigations into the Trump administration, including its handling of the Iran war. Republicans have also searched for people to blame for the midterm losses. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie plans to revive impeachment articles accusing Hegseth of waging the Iran war without congressional approval. A House vote could come as early as next week. ## Links in this article - [2026 congressional prediction markets](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/36264)