# Bitcoin loses 50-week average; past breaks avoided prolonged bear markets

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/52713
Published: 2026-11-10T01:27:49.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-10T01:27:49.000Z
Section: Investing

> Bitcoin closed near $74,000, below its 50-week average of about $75,500. BMTV’s Sean Hagan compared the break with 2012 and 2020, when similar setbacks did not produce fresh cyclical lows.

Bitcoin closed below its 50-week moving average, a setback that two historical comparisons suggest has not always marked the start of a prolonged bear market. In both cases, the price subsequently recovered without undercutting the previous bear-market low.

In a broadcast on Bitcoin Magazine’s X account on November 9, BMTV’s Sean Hagan said reclaiming the 50-week average was an immediate priority. He described the break as a negative development while pointing to historical precedents that complicate its interpretation.

Hagan said Bitcoin ended the week near $74,000, below a 50-week moving average of about $75,500. The close ended seven consecutive weeks above the indicator following 44 straight weeks below it. He described the average as a traditional dividing line between Bitcoin bull and bear markets.

He identified 2012 and 2020 as the two instances in which Bitcoin regained the average after an extended bear market, then lost it again without entering another prolonged downturn. In 2012, Bitcoin reclaimed the line in January and held it for three weeks before falling 40% from its high, with a weekly close as much as 35% below the average. It spent 20 weeks below the line before recovering it in June and remaining above it for more than two years.

In 2020, Bitcoin regained the average in January and held it for eight weeks before the COVID-19 sell-off drove a 52% decline from the February high in 27 days, Hagan said. It spent eight weeks below the average, recovered it in May and subsequently remained above it for more than a year. Neither episode produced a fresh cyclical low below the preceding bear-market bottom.

Hagan saw elements of both episodes in the latest decline. Bitcoin’s break below the average shortly before the weekly close, alongside Nvidia-related news and falling technology futures, resembled the broad selling of 2020. Five consecutive lower weekly closes and persistent spot selling also echoed the exhaustion of the 2012 relief rally, he said. He cited $1.1 billion in losses realized by short-term holders over two days at the end of October, alongside steady spot ETF outflows in recent weeks.

The 2012 decline erased 57% of its relief rally, compared with roughly 43% of Bitcoin’s recent recovery from $58,000 to $86,000, according to Hagan. He also noted that the 50-week average was falling in both periods, helping the price regain the line in 2012 as the average moved lower. The current cushion above the prior low is smaller: the average stands just 29% above the June low, while Bitcoin was 200% and 169% above its preceding bear-market lows when it lost the average in 2012 and 2020, respectively.

Hagan’s historical comparison rested on what followed those earlier breaks: Bitcoin eventually reclaimed the 50-week average and sustained advances lasting more than a year. For the current market, he repeatedly emphasized recovery of that average as the immediate condition to watch.