# Bitcoin could reach $400,000–$500,000 by 2029, James Lavish says, citing cycles and price model

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/53672
Published: 2026-11-11T07:20:37.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-11T07:20:37.000Z
Section: Investing

> James Lavish sees Bitcoin reaching $400,000–$500,000 by mid-2029 based on market cycles and a power-law model, while acknowledging the limited historical data.

Bitcoin could reach $400,000–$500,000 by mid-2029 based on its market cycles and a model of its long-term price trend, according to James Lavish. He cautioned that the small number of observed cycles limits the strength of the analysis.

In an interview shared by Bitcoin Magazine’s X account on November 10, Lavish outlined the forecast using a power-law model. He said a price one standard deviation above the model’s projected mean in mid-2029 would put Bitcoin between $400,000 and $500,000.

Lavish said Bitcoin typically reaches a high about three years after forming a low, with money returning over that cycle. He cited the halving cycle, which affects mining, the four-year election cycle, and manufacturing and industrial economic cycles as possible frameworks for examining that pattern.

He acknowledged that the power-law model is imperfect, with several versions and substantial price swings across trading cycles. Bitcoin generally stays within one standard deviation of the projected mean, he said. The previous cycle’s peak reached only about 0.5 standard deviations above that mean, which he interpreted as a restrained final price surge.

Lavish also said Bitcoin has only a few cycles available for comparison, unlike gold, which has served as money for thousands of years. That leaves a limited statistical basis for assessing its highs and lows. Despite those constraints, he said he would be “absolutely shocked” if Bitcoin did not reach the $200,000–$300,000 range by then.