# Markets Put December Fed Hike Odds at 98.9% Before October CPI By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/54006 Published: 2026-11-11T13:24:50.000Z Updated: 2026-11-11T13:24:50.000Z Section: Investing > The pre-release snapshot assigned a 34.8% chance to cumulative rate increases of 50 basis points by January. Market pricing put the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in December at 98.9% ahead of October’s CPI release, with 1.1% assigned to a larger move. The snapshot placed a 0% probability on rates holding steady in December. A 25-basis-point move equals a quarter of a percentage point; the remaining 1.1% was assigned to a 50-basis-point increase. For January, the snapshot showed a 64.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase and a 34.8% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase. It assigned 0% to no change by that point. These figures describe market expectations ahead of the inflation release, not a Federal Reserve announcement or decision. TokenPost previously covered [market pricing that fully favored a 25-basis-point December increase](); this snapshot also lays out the January rate scenarios. ## Links in this article - [market pricing that fully favored a 25-basis-point December increase](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/53783)