# Derive Market Prices 31% Chance Bitcoin Ends Below $70,000 by Christmas By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/54979 Published: 2026-11-12T05:39:48.000Z Updated: 2026-11-12T05:39:48.000Z Section: Investing > The odds rose from 15% in a week as puts grew to 55% of premiums traded, while the chance of a finish above $80,000 fell to 26%. Bitcoin options pricing on Derive put a 31% chance on the asset ending below $70,000 by Christmas, more than double a week earlier as put options gained share of premiums traded. The market-implied probability stood at 15% the previous week. Odds of Bitcoin finishing above $80,000 fell to 26% from 53% over the same period, while the chance of topping $90,000 dropped to 6% from 18%. Bitcoin traded around $73,500 on Wednesday, Nov. 11, after five consecutive weekly losses. Puts accounted for 55% of premiums traded on Derive, up from 36% a week earlier. Options volume on the platform climbed 37% week over week to $418 million. The repricing came amid concerns about U.S. inflation and the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes. TokenPost previously covered [a large Bitcoin call-options position on Derive]() alongside market odds for a Christmas price threshold. ## Links in this article - [a large Bitcoin call-options position on Derive](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/41514)