# Baird Downgrades Nvidia to Neutral and Cuts Price Target to $200

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/55002
Published: 2026-11-12T06:09:42.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-12T06:09:42.000Z
Section: Investing

> Analyst Tristan Gerra cited potential H200 export curbs, AI spending concerns and uncertainty over Jensen Huang’s future as CEO.

Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral from Outperform on Nov. 11 and cut its price target to $200 from $500, citing possible export limits, questions about AI spending and uncertainty over CEO Jensen Huang’s future at the company.

Baird analyst Tristan Gerra said potential U.S. restrictions on H200 chip exports to China could leave Nvidia facing a $5 billion inventory write-down. Gerra said some shipments had reached Asian warehouses while waiting for Chinese demand.

Gerra said U.S. demand might eventually make up for sales lost in Southeast Asia, though the timing may not match. If cloud companies facing cash-flow pressure cannot take the inventory in the same quarter, the revenue effect could be concentrated in that period.

Gerra projected that AI capital spending by large cloud companies would rise about 40% year over year in 2027. Baird cited supply constraints and early signs of slower demand as reasons for concern. Gerra also wrote that the chance of a CEO transition could increase before 2027, with an outside hire more likely than a promotion from within.

Baird plans to maintain its Neutral rating until the federal investigation ends, the financial impact and related costs can be quantified, and Huang’s role is clearer.

Other firms also changed their Nvidia recommendations on Nov. 11. Morgan Stanley removed the stock from its top-pick list, while Bank of America took it off its US 1 List. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore remained positive on the company but said near-term uncertainty would continue because Huang’s leadership is important to Nvidia’s strategic direction.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya outlined three possible outcomes: limited fallout with leadership continuity, prolonged uncertainty weighing on valuation ahead of earnings, or a more severe case involving an adverse investigation finding, a leadership change or tighter restrictions that would prompt an earnings reassessment.

Three of the 64 analysts covering Nvidia had Hold or Underperform ratings. Nvidia closed Tuesday at $168.89, about 31% below its 2026 high of $243.37 on Oct. 6. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter results after U.S. markets close Tuesday, Nov. 17.