# Macquarie Strategist Flags Three Risks to a December Fed Rate Hike By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/55400 Published: 2026-11-12T12:51:32.000Z Updated: 2026-11-12T12:51:32.000Z Section: Investing > Thierry Wizman cited a possible U.S. government shutdown, lower oil prices if geopolitical tensions ease and a worsening AI outlook that triggers another stock selloff. Macquarie Group foreign-exchange and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said three developments could prompt the Federal Reserve to skip a rate increase at its December meeting or rule out a 50-basis-point hike. Wizman’s current base case is a 25-basis-point increase. He said there is still time for developments to change the outlook before the meeting. Wizman cited a possible U.S. government shutdown and further declines in oil prices if geopolitical tensions ease. He also pointed to a worsening outlook for artificial intelligence that triggers another selloff in U.S. stocks. A separate strategist has identified [softer labor data, slower consumer demand and tighter financial conditions]() as factors that could lower the odds of a December rate increase. ## Links in this article - [softer labor data, slower consumer demand and tighter financial conditions](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/47458)