# Polymarket Puts Odds of Nvidia Ending 2026 Below $4 Trillion at 48%

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/55402
Published: 2026-11-12T12:52:05.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-12T12:52:05.000Z
Section: Investing

> The contract’s probability rose 18% in 24 hours. Settlement is based on Nvidia’s closing share price and outstanding shares on the year’s final trading day.

A Polymarket contract put the odds of Nvidia ending 2026 with a market capitalization below $4 trillion at 48% Thursday, leaving the prediction just under even odds on the threshold.

As of 7:43 a.m. ET (12:43 UTC) Thursday, Nov. 12, the probability was 48%, up 18% over the previous 24 hours. The $4 trillion figure is the cutoff for the contract’s lower market-cap outcome.

Settlement is based on Nvidia’s official closing share price during regular trading on the final trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company’s outstanding shares at that time. The calculation uses official exchange data and Nvidia’s disclosed share count, includes all share classes and adjusts for applicable conversion ratios.

If the result falls exactly on the boundary between two forecast ranges, the contract settles in the higher range.

If Nvidia is acquired or merges and no longer exists as an independent company before year-end, the contract uses its public market capitalization recorded before the transaction is completed and excludes the deal consideration. The standard calculation applies if Nvidia remains the surviving parent.