# [Macro index] US two-year yield rises 0.22 percentage points in a week as risk backdrop scores 54

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/56686
Published: 2026-11-13T13:22:15.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-13T13:22:15.000Z
Section: Investing

> The US two-year Treasury yield rose 0.22 percentage points to 4.73%. Money supply and Fed liquidity supported a neutral macro index reading of 54 as yields and the dollar weighed on risk assets.

US Treasury yields and the dollar rose over the past week, while expanding money supply and Federal Reserve liquidity provided support for risk assets. The overall macro backdrop remained neutral.

The macro index stood at 54 out of 100 on November 13, indicating neutral conditions, up 3 points from 51 on November 6. It averages scores for five components: US M2, Fed net liquidity, dollar strength, market volatility and the yield curve. Higher scores indicate more favorable conditions for risk assets.

Fed liquidity and US money supply supported the index this week, while yields and the dollar weighed on conditions.

## Liquidity offsets pressure from yields and the dollar

The US two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.73% from 4.51% a week earlier, an increase of 0.22 percentage points. The 10-year yield climbed 0.12 percentage points to 4.98% from 4.86%. With short-term yields rising faster, the spread between the 10-year and two-year yields narrowed to 0.25 percentage points from 0.35. The yield-curve component scored 50.

Yields also remained elevated over a longer horizon. The two-year yield was 0.09 percentage points below its month-earlier level, while the 10-year yield was 0.21 percentage points lower. Compared with year-earlier levels of 3.58% and 4.11%, they were higher by 1.15 and 0.87 percentage points, respectively.

The inflation-adjusted 10-year real yield stood at 2.78% on November 10, up 0.13 percentage points from 2.65% a week earlier and 0.94 percentage points from 1.84% a year earlier. Higher real yields can increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no interest, including Bitcoin.

The dollar index rose to 103.17, up 0.8% from 102.30 a week earlier. It was 0.6% above its month-earlier level of 102.55 and 4.0% above 99.18 a year earlier. The dollar component scored 27, the lowest of the five, under a framework that treats a weaker dollar as more favorable for risk assets.

The VIX volatility index fell 31.8% to 17.49 from 25.64 a week earlier, putting it close to its month-earlier level of 16.87. It remained above the midpoint of its relative position over the past two years. The volatility component, which assigns higher scores to lower volatility, scored 43.

Fed net liquidity stood at $5.84 trillion on November 11, up $53.60 billion, or 0.9%, over the week. A decline in the Treasury General Account balance to $914.37 billion from $957.18 billion accounted for much of the increase. A falling Treasury cash balance is treated as a release of funds into the financial system. Fed assets stood at $6.76 trillion, while reverse repo balances were about $0.2 billion. Net liquidity was 0.8% above its level 90 days earlier, producing a component score of 64.

US M2 reached $23.41 trillion in September 2026, up 5.7% from $22.15 trillion a year earlier and 0.5% from $23.30 trillion a month earlier. The seasonally adjusted measure, published monthly by the Fed, scored 72, the strongest reading among the five components.

## Oil and risk assets

In energy markets, WTI stood at $89.62 a barrel on November 11, down 2.3% from $91.73 a week earlier. Brent crude was broadly unchanged at $92.14 a barrel.

Both benchmarks were substantially higher than a year earlier: WTI was up 47.1% and Brent 44.3%. Sustained oil price increases can add to inflation pressure and influence the path of interest rates, making energy another variable for risk assets.

The NDX index stood at 25,366.09 on November 12, up 4.3% over the week. Bitcoin traded at $68,709 after falling 9.4% over the past seven days.

[Editor's note] The macro index averages five scores ranging from 0 to 100: annual M2 growth, the 90-day change in Fed net liquidity, dollar strength, market volatility and the yield spread. Dollar strength and volatility are scored by their relative positions over the past two years. Higher scores indicate more favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.