# Bitcoin May Have Reached Its Cycle Low or Could Face One More Decline, Hashdex CIO Says By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/56906 Published: 2026-11-13T17:09:49.000Z Updated: 2026-11-13T17:09:49.000Z Section: Investing > Kerbage linked lower volatility with a more mature Bitcoin market, while citing stablecoin adoption and tokenization as signs of broader crypto-market growth. Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage said Bitcoin's June low may mark the cycle bottom, though the asset could fall further before a recovery, as smaller swings and wider crypto use reshape the market's cycle profile. Bitcoin fell below $70,000 Friday. Kerbage put the current cycle's deepest peak-to-trough loss at about 53%, reached in June, and said the market may have bottomed then or could see another decline before a recovery. Earlier cycles had deeper losses. Kerbage cited declines of 84% and 83% in Bitcoin's first two major cycles, followed by 77% in the third. Gains from one cycle peak to the next also narrowed, he said, from 1,598% to 250% and then 85%. The current cycle's deepest decline is smaller than each of those historical losses. Volatility has also declined across the cycles. Kerbage said Bitcoin's average annualized volatility was about 80% in its first two cycles, 53% in the third and approximately 44% in the current cycle. He also compared Bitcoin with gold: Bitcoin was nearly 10 times as volatile in 2017, about twice as volatile in 2025 and roughly 1.5 times as volatile in 2026. Kerbage described the lower volatility as a sign of a maturing market. He pointed to activity beyond Bitcoin's price as a separate sign of crypto-market expansion. Since July 2024, the count of Brazilian wallets with stablecoin balances of $10,000 or more has grown 347%, Kerbage said. Stablecoin transactions worldwide totaled $1.79 trillion in June, 125% above their year-earlier level. Visa's stablecoin settlement volume also increased 10-fold over the past year. Kerbage cited tokenization alongside stablecoins as evidence that crypto-market activity can expand during a Bitcoin downturn. Hashdex's earlier view also linked wider institutional participation to changing market dynamics and potentially less pronounced rallies and corrections than in past cycles. The market-bottom question has also appeared in previous commentary. [Lyn Alden's view that Bitcoin's cycle low may be behind it]() cited leverage being flushed out and fast money leaving the market, while noting that fresh demand could take longer to return. ## Links in this article - [Lyn Alden's view that Bitcoin's cycle low may be behind it](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/insights/43275)