# Raoul Pal Says Blockchain Survival Depends on User Economics

By Sonny Jang

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/people/32226
Published: 2026-10-15T03:08:19.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-15T03:08:19.000Z
Section: People

> His analysis tracks capital deployed per active user, stablecoin balances and developer inflows. A 12-network comparison found faster capital turnover was associated with worse returns.

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal says blockchain networks are more likely to endure when capital deployed per active user holds up, stablecoin balances rise and developers keep arriving, rather than when token prices look strong.

Pal’s framework gives networks four possible routes to survival. They can become broad on-chain economies, as he considers Ethereum, Solana and Sui to be; focus on a specialized market, as Hyperliquid does; operate as a layer 2 that relies on another network’s security; or depend on a centralized platform’s financial backing, as he says BNB does with Binance.

Most other general-purpose chains, in Pal’s view, meet none of those conditions. They lack what it takes to compete as independent economies, do not own a defined niche and cannot rely on a centralized platform’s balance sheet. Without a durable advantage, he argues, their value is likely to disappear.

Pal treats block space as the product blockchain networks compete to provide. As that competition pushes transaction costs lower, fee revenue alone may not capture the value of activity built on a network. Applications may favor Ethereum’s security, while others prioritize speed, leaving room for several major networks rather than a single winner.

To test network performance, Pal compared 12 chains using the January 2025 market peak as a starting point and examined what happened over the following 13 months. He looked at whether different metrics could identify the networks that would lose less value. Fee yield did not provide that signal, and neither did the ratio of total value locked to fully diluted valuation.

The only metric he found associated with returns was capital turnover, and the relationship ran in the opposite direction from what faster activity might suggest. Networks with faster turnover later performed worse. In January 2025, Pal put Solana’s turnover at 200 times its locked value, compared with seven times for Ethereum.

Pal interprets rapid turnover as a sign that money is passing through a network rather than staying to build activity there. Capital that remains can support lending, trading and restaking, creating more connections within the economy. By contrast, fast-moving funds may leave when market activity fades. In his analysis, high transaction volume at a market peak can therefore accompany weaker resilience.

For downturns, Pal favors measures that do not depend on token prices. One is economic density per active user, illustrated by the amount of capital deployed for each user. In one network he examined, that amount stayed near $2,100 even as its token price fell 83%, total value locked fell 78% and active addresses dropped by about three-quarters between a December 2024 peak and February 2026.

Pal found that Ethereum, Solana and Sui maintained this user economic density during the downturn he studied. He also found that stablecoin balances increased on all three. His third measure is whether developers continue to move into a network, which he regards as his most important indicator because developers invest time learning a network’s language and architecture.

Pal disclosed that he works for the Sui Foundation and said he identified Sui as one of the three networks after completing his analysis.