# Fed Projections Point to Another 2026 Rate Hike as Yields Stay High

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/23681
Published: 2026-09-24T11:07:29.000Z
Updated: 2026-09-24T11:07:29.000Z

Persistent inflation and elevated long-term Treasury yields are complicating Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy path as Fed projections indicate one more increase could occur this year.

A unanimous Sept. 16 decision increased the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, with the change taking effect the following day.

The Fed’s median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. Relative to the range’s current midpoint, the median estimate is consistent with one additional quarter-point move, but it does not bind the FOMC to that outcome.

Officials also raised their median 2026 inflation projections. Personal consumption expenditures inflation was projected at 3.7%, while core PCE inflation was projected at 3.4%. Both projections are above the Fed’s 2% longer-run inflation goal.

“Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal,” the FOMC said in its Sept. 16 statement.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.11% and the 30-year yield was 5.40% on Sept. 23. These indicative bid-side levels were measured at approximately 3:30 p.m. ET (19:30 UTC).

Long-term Treasury yields reflect expectations for inflation, economic growth, government borrowing and future monetary policy. They are not set directly by the FOMC.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took office on May 22, 2026, after the Senate confirmed him as chair on May 13. His term as chair runs through May 21, 2030.

“The Federal Reserve's commitment to price stability and maximum employment is unwavering,” Warsh said July 9.

The policy outlook comes amid questions from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett about further rate increases. Earlier coverage of the dispute described the White House pressure surrounding the Fed’s policy path.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28.

## Links in this article

- [Earlier coverage of the dispute](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/23564)