# Market Bets on October Fed Rate Hike Double to 40% After CPI

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/32398
Published: 2026-10-15T09:06:05.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-15T09:06:05.000Z
Section: Regulation

> The Fed’s Oct. 28 decision is six days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections; September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier.

Market expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at its Oct. 28 meeting rose to about 40% after September inflation data, up from about 20% the previous day. The decision is six days before the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier and 0.6% from August. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.6% year over year and 0.3% month over month.

Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, while resilient economic activity has added support for further increases. Economists at Jefferies, Nationwide and other institutions see a case for rate increases in either October or December. Other analysts expect the Fed to wait until December, citing the election calendar and potential economic vulnerabilities.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September, its first increase since 2023. Rate increases in October or November before midterm elections have been uncommon.

Markets are watching for comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh before the meeting’s communications blackout for clues to his policy stance. The Fed will announce its next rate decision on Oct. 28.