# U.S. Debt Needs Fiscal Adjustment Equal to 4% of GDP to Fall By Riza Dagoc Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/33870 Published: 2026-10-17T08:57:57.000Z Updated: 2026-10-17T08:57:57.000Z Section: Regulation > Debt held by the public is projected to climb from 101% of GDP in fiscal 2026 to 120% in 2036. The adjustment would involve higher federal revenue and a rebalancing of entitlement programs. The United States needs a fiscal adjustment equal to about 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the current baseline to put its debt on a downward path, with higher federal revenue and changes to entitlement programs forming part of the shift. At the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Bangkok on Wednesday, Oct. 14, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said growth would help but could not “deliver fast enough the necessary adjustments.” Her remarks contrast with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s view that the country can grow its way out of debt. In an Aug. 20 interview, Bessent said, “There’s nothing magic about the $40 trillion number. And we can grow our way out of that.” The exchange is part of a [broader debate over the federal debt outlook](). Debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% of GDP in fiscal 2026 to 120% in 2036 under the February baseline. That measure excludes intragovernmental holdings, which are included in total federal debt. The U.S. debt trajectory poses a risk to financial stability in the United States and globally because the Treasury market is central to the global financial system. ## Links in this article - [broader debate over the federal debt outlook](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/32630)