# German Rent Gap Estimates Vary Across Cities and Studies

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/34658
Published: 2026-10-19T07:54:51.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-19T07:54:51.000Z
Section: Regulation

> One analysis using 2018 data found gaps from 13.5% to 24.7%, while another put the difference in Germany’s seven largest cities at 48%.

Rent differences between existing German leases and new contracts vary across studies, with one analysis finding gaps from 13.5% in small towns or rural areas to 24.7% in metropolises. A separate study put the average difference in Germany’s seven largest cities at 48%, underscoring that the estimates describe distinct samples and methods.

The first analysis used supplementary data from Germany’s 2018 microcensus. It found a 14.5% gap in medium-sized cities and a 17.3% gap in large cities, between the figures for smaller communities and metropolises. The difference can also reduce tenants’ financial incentive to move, because a new lease may cost substantially more than their current one.

The separate study of the seven largest cities measured the average difference at €4.48 per square meter. Since 2013, rents on new leases in those cities have climbed by roughly three-quarters. Those figures should not be read as directly comparable with the microcensus analysis, which used different data and methods.

The size of a rent gap alone does not show that Germany’s rent brake caused it. The policy applies to starting rents in designated tight housing markets, limiting them to no more than 10% above the local comparable rent. It does not cover homes first used and rented after Oct. 1, 2014, and the measure has been extended through Dec. 31, 2029.

A separate analysis of 106 independent cities covering 2012 through 2025 found no statistically significant effect on total rental listings in its population-weighted estimates. It also found a relationship between the rent brake and growth in temporary rental listings, but that relationship does not establish that the policy caused the increase.

Lars Jagemann’s 2026 University of Regensburg dissertation examines differences between existing and new rents, the welfare effects of a policy reform and how political uncertainty affects house prices. Jagemann passed his oral examination on April 30, 2026. The findings and policy analysis address different questions; together, they do not establish a single cause for the rent differences across Germany.