# Social Security Scenario Puts Payroll Tax at 17.3% if Action Waits Until 2034 By Riza Dagoc Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/36315 Published: 2026-10-21T04:08:41.000Z Updated: 2026-10-21T04:08:41.000Z Section: Regulation > The modeled rate is a route to solvency through 2100. A separate retirement and survivors fund faces a projected reserve deadline in 2032. A Social Security solvency scenario would raise the combined payroll tax rate to 17.3% starting in 2034 if substantial action is deferred until then, a modeled change rather than enacted policy. The calculation covers Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), combining retirement, survivor and disability benefits for the projection. The current combined payroll tax rate is 12.4%. Raising it to 17.3% would add 4.9 percentage points, a 39.5% increase in the rate. It is one modeled path to keeping the combined program solvent through 2100. Employees now pay 6.2% on covered earnings, and employers pay another 6.2%. The earnings cap is $184,500 in 2026 and will rise to $192,300 in 2027. The 17.3% scenario applies to covered wages generally; it does not set a separate rate for millennials or Gen Z. The combined program’s reserves are projected to run out in the third quarter of 2034. Continuing income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits at that point. That projection assumes a change in law allowing transfers between the legally separate retirement and disability trust funds. The [Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund](), which pays retirement and survivor benefits, faces an earlier deadline. Its reserves are projected to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032. Continuing income would then cover 78% of scheduled benefits, leaving a 22% funding gap if financing does not change. The fund would continue receiving revenue. The timing of a financing change matters to the modeled tax rate. A separate illustration with changes taking effect in January 2026 used a 16.65% combined payroll tax rate to show 75-year solvency. The 17.3% figure applies to the scenario in which substantial action waits until 2034. Neither rate has been enacted. Meanwhile, [Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment]() will raise benefits by 3.6%. The estimated average retired worker’s monthly payment will increase by $75, from $2,095 to $2,170, in January. The adjustment applies to nearly 72 million beneficiaries but does not resolve the projected funding gaps. Increased Supplemental Security Income payments begin Dec. 31, 2026. ## Links in this article - [Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/33185) - [Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/31845)