# Ukraine’s Central Bank Raises Rate to 16.5% as Inflation Outlook Worsens

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/46811
Published: 2026-11-02T19:20:12.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-02T19:20:12.000Z
Section: Regulation

> The bank forecasts a 0.4% contraction in real GDP this year and sees its rate holding at 16.5% through the second quarter of 2027.

The National Bank of Ukraine raised its key policy rate by 0.5 percentage point to 16.5% on Thursday, Oct. 29, with the increase taking effect Friday, Oct. 30. The bank forecast 12.5% inflation and a 0.4% contraction in real gross domestic product for 2026.

September headline inflation was 10.0% year over year, while core inflation was 8.8%. The NBU estimated price pressures continued into October, linking them to higher fuel prices amid the war in the Middle East and attacks on Ukraine’s warehousing and logistics infrastructure. It said the rate increase was intended to support hryvnia-denominated assets and foreign-exchange market resilience.

The NBU forecast inflation of 7.3% in 2027, returning to its 5% target in 2028. It estimated real GDP fell 0.5% year over year in the third quarter and projected 0.4% growth in 2027 if logistics improve by midyear, followed by 2.2% growth in 2028.

The bank’s forecast keeps the rate at 16.5% through the second quarter of 2027. NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy said the bank would adjust policy as inflation pressures and economic activity change.