# Goldman’s Separate AI Estimates Put Displacement at 6%–7% and 9% By Simon Yoon Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/technology/38936 Published: 2026-10-23T11:55:58.000Z Updated: 2026-10-23T11:55:58.000Z Section: Technology > The estimates come from different research teams and are not reconciled. The September analysis warned that displacement during a recession could make the effects substantially larger. Goldman Sachs published two distinct estimates of artificial intelligence’s potential effect on U.S. workers: one projected 9% would be reallocated to new positions over 10 years, while another estimated 6% to 7% could be displaced over the next decade. The figures come from separate research teams and the analyses do not reconcile the difference. They do not establish a revised forecast or a single 6% to 9% range. In a July 2 transcript, Goldman Sachs Research economist Joseph Briggs discussed a scenario in which full AI adoption eventually lifts productivity by 15%. He said the 9% figure would represent 15 million workers: “Nine percent of workers being displaced by AI would correspond to 15 million workers.” The figure counts workers expected to shift into new positions over a decade; it does not forecast 15 million people remaining jobless. A Sept. 11 analysis by Goldman economists Pierfrancesco Mei, Jessica Rindels and David Mericle put potential displacement at 6% to 7% over the next decade. That analysis warned the effects could be “substantially larger” if displacement happens during a recession. Briggs has also said technology-created jobs could eventually absorb workers displaced by automation, with the pace of job creation shaping the transition. The July estimate was covered in an [earlier report on Goldman’s 9% projection](). ## Links in this article - [earlier report on Goldman’s 9% projection](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/technology/38656)