# U.S. AI Nobel Discovery Expectations Rise to 44%; Anthropic Staff Respondents at 91% By Simon Yoon Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/technology/41196 Published: 2026-10-26T18:10:15.000Z Updated: 2026-10-26T18:10:15.000Z Section: Technology > The September survey covered 7,613 U.S. adults; an August poll found 39% expected the same outcome. A September survey found that 44% of U.S. adults expected artificial intelligence (AI) to be able to make a scientific discovery worthy of a Nobel Prize by 2030, up from 39% in August. In Anthropic’s August employee poll, 91% of staff respondents expected the same outcome. The U.S. survey included 7,613 adults surveyed Sept. 17-24. An earlier survey of 10,980 U.S. adults ran Aug. 11-23, with responses weighted to represent the adult population; half of those respondents were asked about AI’s potential by 2030. Anthropic’s employee poll ran Aug. 9-12 and received 1,334 unweighted responses. The employee and public expectations were also included in [earlier coverage of Anthropic workers’ expectations for AI](). These percentages describe what respondents expect. They are not estimates of the probability that AI will make such a discovery, measurements of AI’s current capabilities or an announced Anthropic target. ## Links in this article - [earlier coverage of Anthropic workers’ expectations for AI](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/technology/34268)