# Google, Meta Cable Projects Rank Third and Fifth in U.S. Sabotage-Risk Model

By Simon Yoon

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/technology/42637
Published: 2026-10-28T13:54:02.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-28T13:54:02.000Z
Section: Technology

> The cumulative scores are not attack probabilities. The report says one outage could strain capacity on direct U.S. links to Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines.

A report commissioned by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission ranked Google and Meta cable projects third and fifth in a sabotage-risk model, warning one outage could strain U.S.-Asia links.

The commission released the assessment Sept. 22. China Strategic Risks Institute prepared it at the request of the commission’s Research Working Group. The commission said publication does not necessarily indicate endorsement of the authors’ conclusions. The report listed TPU as wholly owned by Google and ORCA as wholly owned by Meta.

The index covered 32 U.S. trans-Pacific cable systems. It divided routes into 20-kilometer segments, scored them using selected indicators and added the segment scores for each system. Trans-Pacific Express ranked first at 100.0 points, followed by E2A at 96.7. TPU ranked third at 85.0, while ORCA ranked fifth at 82.2.

Indicators included route depth, shipping density, China’s maritime claims, exclusive economic zones, Taiwan landing points and Chinese ownership. The scores are cumulative model results, not estimates of the probability of an attack.

The report said an outage could strain capacity on direct U.S. links to Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines. It also assessed that one cable outage was unlikely to cause major disruption across the entire trans-Pacific network, while several outages could exceed network capacity. The rankings do not show that TPU or ORCA had been attacked or were being targeted.

Separately, an analysis of automatic identification system records for 223 research vessels, covering Jan. 1, 2020, through Dec. 9, 2025, found a statistically significant association between Chinese-flagged research vessels and more time near subsea infrastructure on the high seas. Seven Chinese-flagged research vessels ranked above the 80th percentile for this activity in 2024. U.S.-flagged vessels ranked above that percentile in all five annual comparisons; Chinese-flagged vessels did so in four, and Russian-flagged vessels in two. The analysis did not establish the intent of individual missions.

USCC Vice Chair Mike Kuiken, co-chair of the Research Working Group, said, “We have been treating this as a bandwidth problem, but in reality, it is a warfighting problem.”