# Citrini Says AI Capex Growth May Have Peaked as Hyperscaler Spending Nears $1 Trillion By Simon Yoon Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/technology/50198 Published: 2026-11-06T16:07:30.000Z Updated: 2026-11-06T16:07:30.000Z Section: Technology > The firm estimates at least $200 billion in annual recurring revenue across the AI ecosystem and points to slower RPO growth, while Amazon expects cash capital expenditures to increase meaningfully in 2027. Citrini Research argues that growth in AI infrastructure investment may have reached a high point, estimating annualized hyperscaler spending is nearing $1 trillion as annual recurring revenue across the broader AI ecosystem stands at least $200 billion. The claim concerns the pace of new spending, not an expected decline in total dollars invested. Citrini expects AI use, adoption and spending to keep rising, while describing the slower expansion in investment as “peak capex growth.” Its nearly $1 trillion estimate does not include all AI spending. Citrini points to slower quarterly growth in remaining performance obligations (RPO), or commercial revenue commitments that have not yet been recognized. The firm says RPO growth has reached its slowest pace in years and that leading AI labs have slowed their commitments. Company spending plans remain substantial. Amazon expects about $220 billion in cash capital expenditures in 2026. It also expects cash capex to increase meaningfully in 2027, primarily because of technology infrastructure. Microsoft’s commercial RPO stood at $677 billion as of Sept. 30, up 73% from a year earlier. A large Azure commitment contributed to the quarter’s total. The measure covers commercial obligations broadly, rather than AI demand alone. The Microsoft figure and Amazon plans are company-specific and do not settle the industry-wide growth trend. Citrini’s Nov. 4 view adds a distinct capex-growth argument after its earlier focus on [financing the AI infrastructure buildout](). Amazon’s expectation of higher cash capex in 2027 remains a concrete sign of continued infrastructure spending. ## Links in this article - [financing the AI infrastructure buildout](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/40774)