Polymarket Insider Wallets Now Betting on US-Iran Ceasefire Before April

A cluster of crypto wallets, long suspected of having insider knowledge on Polymarket, is once again drawing attention. These addresses are now placing coordinated bets on a US-Iran ceasefire happening before the end of March — and the timing has traders and analysts watching closely.

The wallets first came under scrutiny in late February when six newly funded accounts placed large "Yes" bets predicting US strikes on Iran by February 28. Funded roughly 24 hours before the strikes occurred, these wallets reportedly netted around $1.2 million in profit. The same addresses then followed up with successful bets on subsequent Iranian nuclear facility strikes, deepening suspicions about possible information advantages.

Now those same wallets have resurfaced, placing an estimated $100,000 in coordinated positions on a US-Iran ceasefire outcome, with some bets extending into April. The activity coincides with Donald Trump's recent statements describing "productive discussions" with Iran — claims Tehran has publicly denied — creating conflicting signals that are already moving stocks, oil prices, and cryptocurrency markets.

Analysts tracking on-chain data note a consistent pattern: lightly funded or newly created wallets enter high-stakes positions shortly before major geopolitical events, then exit with significant gains. While no confirmed evidence of insider trading exists, the precision of these trades continues to raise serious questions. Polymarket operates on a public blockchain, meaning wallet activity is transparent, though actual identities remain difficult to verify.

Beyond the controversy, the situation highlights a broader trend: prediction markets are increasingly being shaped by geopolitical narratives rather than concrete data. Traders are no longer just betting on outcomes — they are positioning based on how events are framed and communicated by world leaders.

With the March 31 deadline approaching, all eyes remain on these wallets and whether a ceasefire will actually materialize.