Hyperliquid Remains Top Perp DEX Bet Despite Market Share Decline

Decentralized perpetual futures exchanges (perp DEXes) are rapidly gaining traction as traders shift from centralized exchanges like Binance to decentralized alternatives. According to a new thesis from DeFi analyst Patrick Scott, Hyperliquid, despite losing recent market share, still stands out as the most promising and investable perp DEX.

Perpetual futures, or perps, allow traders to speculate on crypto prices without expiry dates. In 2022, perp DEXes represented less than 2% of centralized exchange trading volume, but by last month, they captured over 20%. Hyperliquid, powered by the HYPE token, has been a major driver of this shift. However, its market share in trading volume has dropped dramatically from 45% to just 8%, as rivals such as Binance-backed Aster surged to over $270 billion in weekly trades, while newer players like Lighter and edgeX reported significant growth.

Scott argues that despite these challenges, Hyperliquid’s core fundamentals remain strong. The exchange continues to generate solid revenue at reasonable valuation multiples, while maintaining user loyalty through high open interest. Unlike trading volume, which can be inflated by incentives, open interest reflects liquidity and stability — and Hyperliquid still holds a commanding 62% share of the perp DEX open interest market.

Beyond trading activity, Hyperliquid is expanding strategically. Its HyperEVM network already supports over 100 protocols with more than $2 billion in total value locked. The platform also introduced USDH, a stablecoin backed by reserves held with BlackRock and Superstate, and is advancing HIP-3, a proposal enabling developers to launch new perps markets by staking HYPE tokens. Scott highlights this as a long-term driver of token demand.

While risks remain — including potential drops in open interest, revenue, or failure of USDH adoption — Scott concludes that Hyperliquid’s fundamentals, ecosystem growth, and strong liquidity position it better than competitors reliant on aggressive incentive programs.