Trump Media’s $2B Bitcoin Bet Could Disrupt Traditional Market Cycles

A well-known Wall Street adage, "Don’t fight the Fed," may need a crypto update: "Don’t fight the President." On Monday, Trump Media and Technology Group, owned by former President Donald Trump, revealed a $2 billion investment in Bitcoin (BTC), signaling strong confidence in the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential.

This major move comes amid expectations of a bullish year-end for Bitcoin, despite historical trends suggesting a slowdown. Traditionally, Bitcoin follows a four-year halving cycle, where miner rewards are slashed by 50%. The latest halving in April 2024 cut rewards to 3.125 BTC, propelling prices from $65,000 to nearly $120,000. Past cycles peaked roughly 12–18 months after halving, suggesting a potential top before year-end.

However, this cycle may break tradition due to a key factor: the influence of a pro-crypto U.S. president. Trump’s public stance on lowering interest rates and reducing the Fed’s power aligns with recent crypto-friendly initiatives, such as the GENIUS Stablecoin Act. Analysts note that no one commits $2 billion to a volatile asset without expecting major monetary shifts. Trump’s repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and current 4.25% rates reinforces the idea that his camp anticipates rate cuts and a weaker dollar.

Such macro changes could inject liquidity into the market, fueling risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs predicts three rate cuts starting September, contingent on stable inflation. Trump Media’s Bitcoin purchase appears to be more than a bullish bet—it’s a strategic play anticipating a softer Fed, more liquidity, and increased demand for decentralized assets. This confluence of political backing, monetary easing, and institutional adoption could mark a new era for crypto markets.