Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Weakness as August Looms Near $120K Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to maintain momentum just below the $120,000 mark, with analysts warning of potential downside as the market enters August—a historically weak month for the cryptocurrency. According to a report by 10x Research, August has delivered losses between 5% and 20% in most of the past ten years, with only three years posting gains.

The report highlights waning capital inflows, a key factor behind Bitcoin’s 2025 rally. Cumulative inflows into the Bitcoin network have surpassed $1 trillion this year, including $206 billion in 2025 alone. However, the 30‑day rolling average has slipped from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion, echoing patterns seen before previous market consolidations in Q1 and Q4 of 2024.

“Time is running short, and despite billions entering from corporate treasuries, the price impact remains muted,” said Markus Thielen, co‑founder of 10x Research. He warned that Bitcoin may soon break below $117,000, with near‑term support at $112,000 and deeper levels around $106,000–$110,000.

Despite the cautious outlook, some traders point to previous post‑halving bull markets as a reason for optimism. Outlier August rallies occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021—each during strong bullish cycles following Bitcoin halving events.

As Bitcoin consolidates near record highs, traders are closely watching whether 2025 will follow past bullish patterns or repeat August’s traditional weakness. The next few weeks may prove pivotal in determining whether BTC sustains its rally or retreats toward lower support levels.

This seasonal pattern, combined with shifting capital flows, underscores the importance of cautious positioning for both retail and institutional investors navigating the volatile crypto market.