Stellar (XLM) Price Outlook: Accumulation vs. Weak Momentum Signals

Stellar (XLM) rallied strongly in July but has since traded sideways. After sliding from the $0.40 mark in early September, the altcoin rebounded nearly 8% in two weeks. On-chain metrics now suggest cautious signals for traders.

Data from Santiment shows wallets holding $5M+ in stablecoins increased their share from 55% to 59% through September. Despite whales staying on the sidelines, XLM still reached ~$0.417 on Sept 11–13, hinting the rally came from retail buyers and short covering. Once that momentum faded, upside stalled.

Meanwhile, TradingView’s Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line climbed to 1.72B even as Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stayed negative at −0.13, reflecting steady spot absorption despite weak liquidity. This divergence suggests strong hands accumulated while broader flows stayed risk-off.

Momentum indicators told a similar story. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) histogram rarely stayed positive during the run to $0.417, highlighting a negative divergence. Yet, XLM held firm near $0.38–0.39 afterward, signaling dip defense by long-term holders.

Looking ahead, three price levels stand out. Support lies at $0.36–0.37, tested during mid-September pullbacks. Losing this could drag XLM to $0.33. Resistance sits at $0.40–0.41, a key pivot zone. Sustained closes above $0.41 would confirm renewed demand. A breakout could target $0.45–0.46, matching the range projection, but confirmation requires CMF turning positive and whales rotating out of cash.

In summary, September revealed stealth accumulation but not whale-driven upside. October likely sees consolidation near $0.40, with downside risk toward $0.37 and breakout potential up to $0.46 if liquidity and momentum flip bullish.