Solana (SOL) Faces Bearish Pressure as Holders Sell and Institutional Buyers Stay Cautious

Solana (SOL) is flashing new warning signals despite its recent 9% weekly gain. The altcoin remains down nearly 6% for the month, highlighting weakening buying momentum. On-chain indicators and technical analysis suggest a potential short-term pullback as long-term holders take profits and large investors hold back.

Data from Glassnode’s HODL Waves metric reveals that conviction among long-term Solana holders is fading. Wallets holding SOL for one to two years have reduced their share of the total supply from 20.33% to 18.48%, while three- to six-month holders dropped from 12.7% to 11.55%. This steady decline points to increased profit-taking, a bearish signal often preceding a price correction.

Adding to the bearish outlook, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator — which measures institutional inflows — turned negative after briefly rising above zero on October 27. A negative CMF suggests that big-money investors are refraining from accumulating Solana, limiting support for price recovery. Historically, strong CMF readings during consolidation phases help stabilize assets, but Solana’s current readings indicate weak demand from institutional players.

Technically, the SOL price chart supports this pessimistic view. Between October 13 and October 30, Solana formed a lower high, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher high — a classic hidden bearish divergence signaling continued downside momentum.

If Solana drops below $192, a further decline toward $182 or even $161 could follow. The bearish structure would only be invalidated by a daily close above $206, potentially opening a path toward $237. For now, the balance of signals — from weakening holder confidence to restricted capital inflows — suggests Solana’s short-term outlook remains vulnerable to further downside pressure.