Bitcoin’s Bull Market May Not Be Over Despite Price Slowdown

Bitcoin’s recent rally appears to have stalled, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency, BTC, holding steady above the $100,000 mark after a strong surge earlier this year. While some analysts warn of a potential bear market ahead — citing Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle — long-term indicators suggest that the broader bull phase might still be intact.

One key metric offering hope for bullish investors is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits around $54,750, based on TradingView data. This figure remains far below Bitcoin’s 2021 peak of roughly $70,000, indicating potential room for continued upward movement. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull runs have tended to end when the 200-week SMA rises to meet or challenge the previous cycle’s top. This pattern played out during late 2017 and again in late 2021 to early 2022, just before the market corrected sharply.

At present, the 200-week SMA’s distance from the last cycle’s high suggests Bitcoin could still be within its macro bull trend, even as short-term price action shows signs of fatigue. For traders, this offers a blend of caution and optimism — a reminder that while volatility remains high, the long-term trajectory could favor continued growth.

However, it’s important to note that this trend has only been observed twice in Bitcoin’s history, during periods when institutional participation was much lower than today. With evolving market dynamics and increasing corporate and fund involvement, relying solely on historical patterns may be risky. Still, the indicator’s resilience continues to bolster confidence among crypto enthusiasts who believe that Bitcoin’s next major move could still be upward.