Ethereum Price Faces Pressure as Weak On-Chain Metrics and ETF Outflows Limit Upside

Ethereum (ETH) has fallen about 12% over the past week, slipping after briefly climbing to $3,400. Analysts highlight key liquidity zones between $3,200 and $3,350, indicating the cryptocurrency could revisit that range before attempting a move toward $3,500. The decline reflects broader market uncertainty, with weak global economic indicators and risk-off sentiment pressuring digital assets. Disappointing earnings from major consumer firms and renewed concerns over inflated artificial intelligence valuations have added to bearish sentiment. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown—the longest in history—has also dragged down investor confidence, with consumer expectations sinking to their lowest since 1978, according to the University of Michigan survey.

On-chain data underscores Ethereum’s cooling ecosystem. Total value locked (TVL) has plunged to around $74.26 billion, marking a 24% drop over the past month—the lowest level since July. A major catalyst was the $120 million Balancer v2 DeFi exploit earlier this week. Trading volume fell 31.6% to $65.3 billion, while open interest slipped 3.4% to $38.85 billion. The OI-weighted funding rate, hovering near 0.0073%, reflects muted bullish leverage. DApp activity also declined 18% month-over-month to $80.7 million in October, signaling reduced network engagement and lower staking rewards.

Institutional demand remains sluggish, with U.S.-listed Ethereum spot ETFs seeing net outflows of $507.83 million in November. Corporate treasuries have also avoided new ETH allocations, underscoring weak institutional participation. While the upcoming Fusaka Upgrade in early December may offer a potential catalyst by improving scalability and security, Ethereum’s short-term outlook remains uncertain. Sustained recovery would require stronger macroeconomic conditions, renewed ETF inflows, and on-chain growth. Until then, ETH may continue consolidating near support zones, with limited potential for a breakout toward $3,900.