Solana Price Outlook Hinges on Existing Holders as New Demand Slows

Solana’s next potential price move appears increasingly dependent on the behavior of existing holders rather than an influx of new market participants. Unlike previous rallies fueled by strong fresh capital entering the ecosystem, current on-chain and market data suggest that SOL’s near-term trajectory will rely on whether long-term and current investors continue to show resilience.

Recent on-chain indicators offer early signs of stabilization. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a metric used to assess capital inflows and outflows, has recorded a noticeable uptick over the past several days. While the CMF remains below the neutral zero line, the upward movement indicates that selling pressure may be easing. Slowing capital outflows are often a precursor to renewed inflows, which can support price recovery if sustained. For Solana, continued improvement in CMF would signal growing confidence among existing holders, an essential factor given the lack of strong new demand.

However, broader network activity paints a more cautious picture. Data shows a significant decline in the number of new Solana addresses created over the past ten days, dropping from approximately 6.08 million to 5.39 million, an 11.3% decrease. This reduction suggests waning speculative interest and hesitation from new investors, likely driven by limited short-term incentives and broader market uncertainty. As a result, the burden of supporting price stability falls more heavily on current SOL holders rather than new entrants.

At the time of writing, Solana trades near $126, consolidating below the key $130 resistance level. This sideways price action reflects indecision rather than a clear breakout. A decisive move above $130 would indicate improving short-term momentum and could open the door for further gains, provided buying pressure remains consistent rather than speculative.

Downside risks remain present. If market sentiment weakens and selling resumes, SOL could fall below the $123 support level, potentially exposing the $118 zone as the next downside target. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish recovery thesis and reinforce short-term weakness. Overall, Solana’s price outlook now hinges on whether existing holders can maintain accumulation amid declining new network participation.