Solana Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch as January 2026 Nears

Solana price action has weakened over the past month, with SOL down roughly 12% over the last 30 days. As January 2026 approaches, the market presents a mixed picture, combining historically bullish seasonal trends with technical and derivatives-based caution. While some indicators point toward a potential rebound, others suggest downside pressure could persist if momentum fails to improve.

Historically, January has been one of the strongest months for Solana. Data shows an average January return of around 59%, with a median gain near 22%. This tendency becomes even more pronounced following a negative December. For example, after a sharp December decline in 2022, SOL surged 140% in January 2023. A similar, though smaller, pattern appeared in early 2025. With SOL already down nearly 7% this month, historical probabilities lean toward a rebound, though history alone is never a guarantee.

ETF flows provide additional context. Since launch, Solana spot ETFs have recorded no weekly net outflows, with cumulative inflows reaching approximately $755 million. Recent inflows, including over $13 million in the latest incomplete week, indicate continued institutional interest. However, analysts caution that this does not signal a broad altcoin rally. Instead, investors appear to be selectively allocating to highly liquid assets like Solana, where risk management is easier.

From a technical perspective, the chart remains divided. A bullish RSI divergence on the two-day timeframe hints at a possible trend reversal. At the same time, the 100-period EMA is close to crossing below the 200-period EMA, a bearish signal that could extend weakness into early January. Derivatives data reinforces this caution, as most trader cohorts remain net short, although some long positions are slowly emerging in anticipation of a seasonal bounce.

Key Solana price levels define the near-term outlook. A sustained close above $129 would signal strength and open the door to $150 and potentially $171. Conversely, a break below $116 would invalidate the seasonal bullish narrative and suggest further downside. As January nears, SOL remains at a critical crossroads, with momentum, ETF demand, and technical levels all playing decisive roles.