Bitcoin ETF Outflows Raise Fresh Doubts Over BTC Price Momentum in Early 2026

Bitcoin began 2026 with strong momentum as U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1 billion in inflows during the first two trading days of the year. That early optimism, however, has faded quickly. A three-day streak of heavy ETF outflows has erased nearly all of those gains, signaling renewed uncertainty around Bitcoin’s short-term price outlook and weakening institutional conviction.

According to data from Farside Investors, the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $1.128 billion over the past three trading sessions. This nearly offsets the $1.16 billion in inflows seen at the start of the year, leaving year-to-date ETF flows almost flat. Analysts say the sharp reversal reflects tactical positioning rather than sustained bullish sentiment among large investors.

Market participants note that ETF flow patterns suggest rotation instead of long-term accumulation. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of crypto exchange Giottus, explained that alternating inflows and outflows point to short-term trading behavior rather than conviction buying. He also highlighted tightening macroeconomic conditions, which have reduced overall risk appetite across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s price action mirrors this risk-off environment. After reaching highs above $94,600 earlier in the week, BTC fell toward the $90,000 level and briefly dipped below $89,300, according to CoinDesk data. Broader crypto market weakness has followed, with memecoin and DeFi-related indices also retreating from recent highs.

Investors are now closely watching upcoming macroeconomic catalysts that could influence Bitcoin and other risk assets. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release on Friday at 13:30 UTC and is expected to show slower job growth, with economists forecasting 55,000 new jobs added in December. The unemployment rate is projected to edge down to 4.5%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.6% year over year.

A softer labor market could revive demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin, by strengthening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Conversely, resilient employment data may keep BTC and broader markets range-bound in the near term. With Bitcoin continuing to show a strong correlation to the Nasdaq, macro data and policy signals remain critical drivers of crypto market direction as 2026 unfolds.