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Matt Hougan recently drew a compelling comparison between Bitcoin’s current market structure and gold’s historic price behavior, arguing that prolonged institutional demand often takes time to fully reflect in asset prices. He pointed to gold’s strong rally in 2025 as a clear example of how markets can remain subdued for years before erupting once demand consistently outpaces supply.
Hougan explained that central banks significantly increased their gold purchases beginning in 2022, shortly after the United States froze Russia’s Treasury reserves. This geopolitical event accelerated a shift in reserve management strategies, prompting central banks to double their annual gold purchases from roughly 500 tonnes to about 1,000 tonnes. Notably, this elevated level of demand persisted year after year. Despite this, gold prices initially remained relatively flat, demonstrating the market’s ability to absorb sustained buying pressure without an immediate breakout.
Gold’s performance during this period highlights the delayed impact of institutional accumulation. The metal gained just 2% in 2022, followed by 13% in 2023 and 27% in 2024. However, in 2025, gold prices turned parabolic, surging by approximately 65% as the ongoing demand finally overwhelmed available supply. According to Hougan, this lag is not unusual, as markets often require time to exhaust willing sellers before prices accelerate sharply.
Applying this framework to Bitcoin, Hougan emphasized the growing influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since their launch in January 2024, these ETFs have consistently purchased more than 100% of newly mined Bitcoin, effectively absorbing all fresh supply and additional coins from existing holders. As of January 13, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached around $56.52 billion, underscoring the scale of institutional interest.
Despite this strong demand, Bitcoin has yet to experience a true parabolic price move. Hougan believes this is because long-term holders are still selling into the rally. However, he argues this dynamic is temporary. Once sellers are exhausted, sustained ETF demand could mirror gold’s trajectory, potentially driving Bitcoin into a powerful, long-term price surge.
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