XRP Drops 23% in Q1 as ETF Delays, Utility Gap Weigh on Price

Ripple’s XRP token extended its weak tone on Sunday, trading in the $1.34–$1.36 range as investors weighed strong corporate momentum against persistent ‘regulatory uncertainty’ and fading near-term catalysts. Despite upbeat messaging from CEO Brad Garlinghouse and what Ripple described as a record first quarter, XRP still closed the quarter down more than 23%, underscoring a widening gap between Ripple’s business expansion and the token’s price action.

As of March 30 UTC, XRP changed hands near $1.34, marking a 23.7% decline for the first quarter of 2026 and leaving the token more than 60% off its cycle peak. February was particularly punishing, with XRP sliding roughly 30% during the month—an abrupt drawdown that reinforced investor caution even as broader crypto markets looked for direction amid shifting macro expectations.

Ripple, however, reported accelerating operational metrics. The company said its prime brokerage revenue tripled following its acquisition of Hidden Road, while payments volume surpassed $100 billion during the quarter. Ripple also pointed to a $750 million share buyback that implied a company valuation of roughly $50 billion, signaling confidence from management and major shareholders even as token markets struggled to regain traction.

One of Ripple’s most closely watched initiatives—its stablecoin RLUSD—also expanded rapidly. Ripple said RLUSD reached a market capitalization of $1.56 billion, with about 88% of supply circulating on the Ethereum (ETH) network. That distribution highlights both RLUSD’s interoperability and a key nuance for XRP holders: much of the near-term adoption tied to Ripple’s infrastructure is occurring through stablecoin and fiat rails rather than directly through XRP.

Several major financial institutions—including Deutsche Bank, Aviva Investors, and Société Générale—have integrated Ripple’s infrastructure into payment workflows, according to the report. Yet those implementations are largely settling via RLUSD and traditional currencies, limiting the immediate transmission mechanism from enterprise adoption to XRP demand. For markets, the distinction matters: institutional usage of Ripple rails does not automatically translate into incremental spot buying of XRP unless XRP is materially embedded in settlement flows.

Garlinghouse attempted to refocus attention on policy tailwinds, striking an optimistic tone between March 27 and March 30 UTC. He reiterated confidence in Ripple’s quarterly momentum and suggested an 80% probability that the ‘Clarity Act’ could pass by late May. If enacted as anticipated, the legislation could provide a clearer pathway for U.S. banks to offer crypto-related services under a stablecoin-oriented framework, potentially expanding the universe of compliant use cases that include XRP-based on-demand liquidity.

Still, optimism around legislation has been tempered by delays on a separate front: spot XRP exchange-traded funds. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to issue decisions on filings from major asset managers including Grayscale and Bitwise even after the March 27 deadline passed, contributing to market frustration and leaving traders without a near-term catalyst many had hoped would unlock new ‘institutional demand’.

Adding to the pressure, market participants have noted that crypto inflows from institutions slowed in March, reducing the broader ‘liquidity inflow’ that has often supported large-cap altcoins. Within the XRP community, criticism has also grown over potential delays to the Clarity Act process and what some view as muted engagement from key U.S. trading venues, with a Senate review reportedly penciled in for late April—an agenda item that could still slip.

Price forecasts remain sharply divided. Bearish analysts argue that a persistent hawkish tilt from the U.S. Federal Reserve, alongside weaker ETF-related expectations, could leave XRP vulnerable to a breakdown—potentially opening the door to a retest near $0.80, roughly 40% below current levels. More constructive outlooks see XRP recovering to $2.25–$2.50 by late 2026, with some calling for a rebound toward $2.80, though that would still represent a scaled-back trajectory compared with earlier, more aggressive projections.

Longer-term, Standard Chartered has maintained an ambitious target that XRP could reach $28 by 2030, a view that hinges on broad-based adoption and a favorable regulatory regime. Ripple’s chief technology officer has also reiterated a long-standing thesis that XRP’s utility value is resilient regardless of short-term price fluctuations—an argument that implicitly acknowledges the market’s current dilemma: adoption headlines can be bullish for Ripple’s network footprint without necessarily being bullish for XRP’s spot price.

In intraday trading on March 30 UTC, XRP briefly rose about 2% to $1.36 following Garlinghouse’s comments on traditional finance’s accelerating shift toward crypto. Trading activity spiked, with 24-hour volume reported at roughly $1.93 billion—up more than 100% day over day—yet the move did not meaningfully change the token’s short-term momentum.

XRP’s market capitalization stood near $82.5 billion, ranking it fifth among cryptocurrencies with an estimated 3.53% market share. For now, traders are focusing on whether the $1.30 level holds as near-term support, while the larger trajectory is likely to be dictated by two timelines: progress on the ‘Clarity Act’ and the eventual decision path for spot XRP ETF applications. Ripple’s expanding partnerships and strong corporate metrics remain clear positives, but the market continues to debate how—and how quickly—those developments can translate into sustained demand for the XRP token.