Kalshi Ether Perpetual Trades Clustered Around $5,499 Size

Kalshi’s Ether (ETH) perpetual-futures market concentrated $7.7 million of trading around $5,499 from Sept. 17-20, a pattern that Kalshi attributed to fixed-size liquidity orders rather than wash trading.

The trades near $5,499 represented 57% of a $13.5 million sample covering 3,450 trades across 23 one-hour samples. A total of 1,406 trades fell within $2 of the target size.

Similar fixed-dollar clusters appeared in 43 of 46 one-hour samples from June 19 through Sept. 20. Other recurring sizes included approximately $4,999, $9,999, $3,999 and $4,499.

Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual trades near $2,500 and $5,000 accounted for 54% of an $8.5 million sample during the same Sept. 17-20 period.

Kalshi attributed the repeated sizes to a liquidity arrangement in which a market maker posted fixed-size orders and other traders executed against them.

“The fixed size trades are entirely consistent with a single maker putting up resting orders of a fixed size and getting traded against by many takers,” Kalshi said.

The company also said hundreds of separate traders took the opposite side of the orders and were consistently profitable while the market maker lost money on the transactions. “We’ve seen no evidence of collusion or wash trades,” Kalshi said.

The public trade feed does not identify account holders or counterparties. The recurring trade sizes therefore do not establish wash trading or other wrongdoing, and the identities and relationships behind the activity remain unconfirmed.

Kalshi described an example liquidity agreement that pays Bank Street Trading $100,000 per month to maintain bids and offers of at least $5,000 with a spread of no more than 0.1% for at least 95% of each hour.

A Sept. 2 filing by KalshiEX LLC with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission created a temporary perpetual-futures rebate program scheduled to run through Dec. 31 unless ended earlier. It could take effect after exchange notice no earlier than 5 p.m. ET (9 p.m. UTC) on Sept. 16. Kalshi said the program was not active during the Sept. 17-20 sample.

The filing set crypto-perpetual taker fees at a net 0.3 basis points, or 0.003%, after rebates. Maker rebates would also reduce the net fee to 0.3 basis points, while double payments and negative maker-and-taker fees on individual trades were prohibited.

Trades resulting from or under review for self-matching, wash trading, pre-arranged trading or other abusive practices were excluded from rebate eligibility.

A CFTC staff advisory dated Aug. 12 warned that volume-based rewards can increase the risk of wash trading and pre-arranged trading. It also cautioned that stipends and rebates covering market-maker losses can encourage artificial trading strategies.

“Volume-based rewards with steep tiers or threshold bonuses can encourage participants to trade solely to reach volume targets,” the advisory said.

Perpetual futures track crypto prices without an expiration date, and repeated dollar-sized trades can occur when algorithms adjust contract counts to maintain a target dollar value as the underlying asset changes.