Bitcoin Holds Above Realized Price as $95,000–$97,000 Test Nears

Bitcoin has reclaimed several important cost bases without a broad rise in leverage, leaving the $95,000–$97,000 area as the next major test for the recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) has not recorded a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market, even after the share of supply held at a profit fell to levels last seen near the November 2022 low. The June low also remained above realized price.

If BTC continues to hold above its true market mean near $77,000, the June bottom would be the shallowest of the three bear-market lows recorded since 2017. BTC is currently above that level and its short-term holder cost basis.

The largest long-term holder supply band sits between $84,000 and $85,000, just below the current price area. A move back below $84,000 would put the $77,000 true market mean back in focus.

The main resistance above the market is the mean market-value-to-realized-value price near $96,700. The level represents the point at which average holder profits return to their long-term norm. Buyers who entered near the upper end of the range one to two years ago would also approach breakeven there.

Options positioning points to the same region. Dealer exposure on Deribit shifted sharply in one day, with positive gamma concentrated near the $95,000 strike and negative gamma between the current price and $92,000.

Gamma describes how options dealers hedge their positions. In the range between the current price and $92,000, those hedges may amplify price moves by prompting dealers to buy as prices rise and sell as prices fall. Near $95,000, the effect reverses and may slow the pace of movement.

That places $95,000–$97,000 as the first major resistance zone if the recovery continues. The options positioning sits just below the mean market-value-to-realized-value price, creating an overlap between market-structure and derivatives resistance.

Profit-taking has remained limited. Weekly net realized profit is still only a small fraction of the levels reached at the 2024 and 2025 market tops. Nearly all short-term holders have returned to profit, and their share of supply in profit has moved above a historical sell line.

The measure alone does not establish the market’s next direction. A move back below that line accompanied by rising realized profit would be the first sign that recent buyers are beginning to cash out.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $1.3 billion in combined inflows during the five trading days after the latest squeeze began, reversing net outflows over the prior two weeks. The latest single-day inflow was the largest since early July.

Spot activity has also increased. Twenty-four-hour spot volume across exchanges has more than doubled from its August low, rising about 121% since the recovery began. The increase differs from four earlier volume expansions between late 2025 and midyear, when higher turnover accompanied falling prices.

The seven-day average for spot volume remains about 30% below its level a year earlier. That indicates a recovery from a low base rather than a return to 2025 trading levels.

Altcoins have participated in the move. About 72.5% of tracked altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the past week, compared with a peak of 39% during the August squeeze.

Limited new altcoin leverage points to a market still rebuilding. Altcoin perpetual-futures open interest has barely increased over the past 30 days, and fewer than half of markets are adding positions. The advance has therefore been driven mainly by spot buying, while a broad rise in open interest would indicate greater market overheating.

The latest on-chain, ETF and options readings were dated Sept. 21, spot-volume data covered Sept. 22, and hourly price data ran through Sept. 23.