Arthur Hayes Predicts Crypto Bull Market Resurgence at TOKEN2049, Citing Macro Liquidity Trends

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, said on Tuesday that the global crypto market is poised for a new bull cycle, citing macroeconomic indicators that echo conditions from the third quarter of 2022.

Speaking at the TOKEN2049 conference in Dubai, Hayes drew parallels between current financial conditions and the lead-up to Bitcoin’s sharp rebound in late 2022. At that time, widespread monetary tightening by global central banks led to a severe downturn across asset classes, with U.S. Treasuries posting their worst performance since 1812 and Bitcoin dropping to $15,000.

Despite market fears, Hayes recalled the period as a key entry point for investors. "It was the beginning of a liquidity reset," he said, adding that similar dynamics are emerging now.

Central to Hayes’ thesis is the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility. According to Hayes, readings above 140 typically trigger intervention by U.S. policymakers. He cited the 2022 example, when the index spiked, prompting the U.S. Treasury to inject $2.5 trillion into markets via reverse repurchase agreements—coinciding with Bitcoin’s sixfold rise.

He noted the index surged again to 172 on April 2, following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement, suggesting another wave of liquidity could be forthcoming.

Hayes also pointed to Treasury buyback programs as a stealth mechanism for injecting liquidity. Though not officially labeled quantitative easing, he argued these operations—whereby the Treasury issues new bonds to repurchase older ones—have similar effects, supporting risk assets and enabling leverage for hedge funds.

He warned that U.S. fiscal deficits and declining tax revenues, particularly from capital gains, will continue to pressure policymakers to expand liquidity. With politically sensitive terms like “quantitative easing” increasingly avoided, Hayes expects buybacks to become a more prominent tool.

"Now is the time to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major crypto assets," Hayes concluded, emphasizing that liquidity is returning even in the absence of rate cuts or QE.

Ending his speech with a rallying call, Hayes told attendees: “Take out your phones and buy Bitcoin. You could become rich.”