Nancy Pelosi vs Cathie Wood: Who Has the Better Investing Track Record?

Nancy Pelosi’s family investment portfolio and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest are once again drawing comparisons after ARK purchased Circle (CRCL) shares just one day before the stablecoin issuer secured a landmark U.S. bank charter.

According to Quiver Quantitative, a hypothetical portfolio tracking the Pelosi family’s disclosed trades has generated an annualized return of about 21% since May 2014. The backtested strategy, based on public financial disclosures, showed a win rate of roughly 73% across 731 trades and a maximum drawdown of around 37% as of mid-July 2026.

By comparison, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has delivered an annualized return of approximately 13.4% since launching in October 2014, producing a cumulative gain of more than 300%. While impressive, Quiver’s model suggests the Pelosi strategy has outperformed both ARKK and the S&P 500 over the same period.

Although Nancy Pelosi does not personally manage the portfolio, her husband, Paul Pelosi, oversees the investments, which frequently use call options on large-cap technology companies. Unusual Whales estimated the Pelosi portfolio gained about 70.9% in 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 24.9% return.

However, replicating those results is challenging because the STOCK Act allows lawmakers to disclose trades up to 45 days after they occur, often making it impossible for investors to enter positions at similar prices. Academic research remains divided, with some studies showing congressional trades outperform the market while others found no persistent advantage after disclosure rules were strengthened.

Meanwhile, Cathie Wood continues to emphasize transparency by publishing ARK’s trades daily. On July 9, ARK purchased roughly 217,900 Circle shares valued at about $13.7 million while reducing its Robinhood position. The following day, Circle received final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank, sending the stock about 15% higher in pre-market trading.

The comparison may not last much longer. Pelosi is expected to retire when her term ends in January 2027, while legislation aimed at banning lawmakers and their spouses from owning individual stocks continues to gain bipartisan support. For now, Pelosi’s portfolio leads on historical returns, while ARK Invest stands out for its real-time transparency and public conviction in its investment strategy.