CLARITY Act Approval Odds Fall Below 50% as Senate Delays Raise Concerns

The odds of the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 have dropped sharply on prediction markets as political uncertainty and a packed Senate schedule continue to weigh on crypto legislation. According to Kalshi, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law before 2027 fell from nearly 75% last week to 49%. The chances of approval before August 2026 also declined to 37%, while the odds of passage before July 2026 dropped to just 14%.

The decline followed the Senate’s recent week-long recess, during which lawmakers made no progress on a major border security reconciliation package. Analysts believe the growing legislative backlog could make it harder for crypto-related bills, including the CLARITY Act, to secure Senate floor time once Congress reconvenes in June.

Journalist Eleanor Terrett noted that the CLARITY Act now faces competition from several high-priority measures, including a housing package, a farm bill, and the upcoming June 12 FISA deadline. Internal Republican disagreements over funding provisions have also increased uncertainty around the bill’s timeline and whether it can receive a vote before the August recess.

Despite the falling prediction market odds, lawmakers continue working privately on digital asset legislation. Senator Cynthia Lummis confirmed that discussions are ongoing to create a broader crypto market structure framework. She explained that lawmakers plan to combine the Senate Banking Committee’s recently approved bill with additional legislation from the Senate Agriculture Committee to clarify oversight responsibilities for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Lummis also revealed that senators are reviewing ethics provisions and technical updates related to the GENIUS Act. She expressed hope that the combined crypto legislation package could reach the Senate floor sometime this summer.

Earlier this month, the CLARITY Act advanced through committee with bipartisan support in a 15-9 vote held on May 14, signaling continued momentum for US crypto regulation efforts in 2026.