Polymarket Odds Drop Before Senate Blocks Clarity Act Advance
The Senate vote failed 49-50 on Sept. 15, leaving the market-structure bill short of the three-fifths threshold needed to proceed.
The market-implied chance of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 becoming law was lower before the Senate failed to advance the measure, leaving its prospects uncertain.
The Senate voted 49-50 on Sept. 15 to reject cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 at 2:19 p.m. ET (18:19 UTC). At that vote, senators fell short of the three-fifths approval required for the procedural motion. One senator did not vote.
Polymarket’s contract asks whether H.R. 3633 will pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into law by Dec. 31, 2026. The market currently shows a 6% probability for that outcome and $22.9 million in trading volume.
H.R. 3633 would assign federal oversight of digital commodities to a framework involving the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Senate action blocked the bill’s immediate advancement but was not a final vote on passage.
