CFTC Investigates Adam Kinzinger Over Kalshi Pardon Trades
A linked account made about 25 trades tied to Kinzinger’s potential pardon and Joe Biden’s preemptive pardons, reporting an $823 gain.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether a Kalshi account linked to former Rep. Adam Kinzinger improperly traded contracts tied to his potential presidential pardon, raising fresh questions about insider-trading rules in prediction markets.
The account traded two types of contracts between December 2024 and January 2025: whether Kinzinger would receive a pardon and whether President Joe Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office.
Kinzinger said the trades produced an $823 gain across about 25 transactions, most of which lost money. He denied having nonpublic information and said he had reviewed Kalshi’s rules before trading. He understood the rules to prohibit trading by people who could influence an outcome or possess material nonpublic information.
Kalshi’s rules also bar direct participants from betting on its contracts. The platform is conducting an internal review of the account activity while the CFTC examines the trades.
The inquiry adds to scrutiny of prediction markets, where contracts on political events are traded under federal derivatives oversight. Kalshi previously froze accounts and barred users over self-referential trading involving former Rep. George Santos.
