Bitcoin Outlook: Sideways Now, Long-Term Bullish as Macro Forces Build

Bitcoin’s near-term price action is likely to test investors’ patience, but the long-term outlook remains firmly bullish, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. He expects Bitcoin to trade in a broad sideways range between $75,000 and $100,000 during the first half of the year, citing heavy selling pressure near the $100,000 level. Options market positioning suggests a significant amount of Bitcoin supply remains available at those prices, limiting the chances of an immediate breakout.

Hougan believes a more decisive move higher is more likely later in the year, as macroeconomic risks are gradually absorbed and regulatory clarity improves, particularly in the United States. While short-term volatility may frustrate traders, he argues that consolidation is a healthy phase within a broader bull cycle.

The recent rally in precious metals plays an important role in strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term investment case. Hougan notes that gold’s surge reflects growing global anxiety around fiat currency debasement, rising sovereign debt, and asset seizure risks. Silver, meanwhile, appears to be behaving like a late-stage momentum trade, comparable to speculative rallies often seen in altcoins. Over time, Hougan expects these dynamics to redirect capital toward Bitcoin, which he views as a superior form of digital gold, offering self-custody, censorship resistance, and efficient global settlement.

Interest from central banks is also slowly increasing, though widespread adoption remains distant. Hougan revealed that Bitwise has already engaged in discussions with central banks across multiple regions. For now, these institutions are focused on understanding Bitcoin’s security model and risk profile rather than implementation. He estimates that meaningful central bank Bitcoin ownership could still be 10 to 20 years away, but ultimately believes they may hold more Bitcoin than gold.

Looking further ahead, Hougan maintains his bold long-term projection that Bitcoin could reach approximately $6.5 million per coin within the next two decades. This thesis is driven not by rapid adoption alone, but by continued global debt expansion, persistent money printing, and long-term currency debasement. Declining Bitcoin volatility is another key factor, making it increasingly attractive to institutional investors. Hougan points out that Bitcoin is now less volatile than some widely held equities, reinforcing his conviction that, despite short-term chop, the fundamentals strongly favor a powerful long-term uptrend.