Micron Earnings Put HBM Demand and the Memory Cycle Under Scrutiny

Micron Technology faced sharply divided expectations before its Sept. 30 fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release, with investors focused on whether artificial-intelligence demand can extend the memory-chip cycle beyond the company’s immediate results.

Micron guided for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, and non-GAAP earnings of $31 per share, plus or minus $1. Consensus estimates were higher at about $51.07 billion in revenue and $31.52 in adjusted earnings per share.

At the midpoint, the quarterly revenue forecast would exceed Micron’s approximately $37.1 billion in revenue for all of fiscal 2025. The company’s earnings call was scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET (20:30 UTC) Sept. 30.

The central question for investors is whether strong artificial-intelligence infrastructure demand can support another phase of growth after the release. Market participants are also watching high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, pricing, conventional DRAM demand and Micron’s capital-spending plans for fiscal 2027.

HBM Tightens the Memory Equation

HBM is taking up a growing share of DRAM manufacturing capacity as chipmakers supply advanced processors used in artificial-intelligence systems. Kim Taewoo, an executive vice president at Samsung Electronics, said Sept. 29 that HBM could account for nearly 30% of global DRAM wafer capacity in 2027, compared with about 20% currently.

HBM4 requires about three times the wafer capacity of general-purpose DRAM. That production intensity could limit the amount of capacity available for conventional memory even as demand for standard DRAM remains an important part of Micron’s business.

Micron’s HBM4 program has also advanced. Its 12-layer HBM4 product, designed for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform, entered volume shipments in the first quarter of 2026. The product’s energy efficiency is more than 20% higher than HBM3E, and cumulative shipment revenue has exceeded $1 billion.

The company’s exposure extends across both HBM and conventional DRAM. That gives Micron potential leverage from rising demand for AI-related memory, while also leaving its results sensitive to pricing and demand in the broader DRAM market.

Two Views on Micron’s Valuation

D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a $2,000 price target for Micron before the earnings release. His argument rests on tight HBM supply, strong demand and orders being committed more than a year ahead, which could give the company greater visibility into future revenue.

Luria also views Micron as inexpensive compared with other semiconductor companies. The comparison cited price-to-earnings ratios of about 40 to 60 times for AMD and Intel, versus roughly seven times for Micron.

That valuation gap reflects a larger debate over how investors should classify Micron. A cyclical memory company is typically valued around the rise and fall of supply and pricing, while a growth company tied to AI infrastructure may command a higher multiple if demand remains durable.

The company’s guidance has therefore become only one part of the market’s assessment. Investors are looking for details on HBM4 production, customer qualification, gross margins and the timing of revenue growth from new platforms.

Fiscal 2027 Spending in Focus

Micron’s fiscal 2027 capital-spending outlook will be another major test. Spending is expected to fall in the mid-to-high $40 billion range, with a significant portion directed toward cleanroom construction.

That investment could expand future manufacturing capacity, but it also raises questions about how quickly spending becomes revenue and whether the memory cycle will remain favorable while new capacity comes online.

Investors are also watching HBM4 yield improvements. Slower-than-expected progress could affect production efficiency and shipment timing, while weaker conventional DRAM pricing could offset some of the strength from AI-related memory.

Micron’s Sept. 30 earnings release and management’s outlook for fiscal 2027 are the next concrete markers for the market. The figures will help investors assess whether the company is benefiting from a durable shift in memory demand or operating near the top of another cyclical upswing.