El Salvador’s 4.5% Growth Outlook Supports $140 Million IMF Review

El Salvador’s 2026 growth outlook has improved to 4.5%, alongside a staff-level agreement that could make about $140 million available under the country’s financing program if required conditions are met.

The outlook reflects investment, private consumption, remittances, tourism and capital inflows. Stronger-than-expected growth in 2025 and improved security and investor confidence also support the projection.

The potential disbursement is part of a 40-month, $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility approved in February 2025. The program includes fiscal and structural reforms, with a target for the nonfinancial public sector primary surplus to reach 3.7% of gross domestic product in 2027. That target is consistent with the goal of reducing public debt to 80% of GDP by 2030.

The reviews also address Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation. El Salvador provided documentation that Bitcoin acquired since the program’s first review came from private donations and did not use public resources. No further accumulation beyond the documented donations is expected.

The staff-level agreement does not finalize the funding. Disbursement remains conditional on Executive Board approval and completion of agreed prior actions. Continued implementation of reforms remains important to the program’s aims.