WTO Raises 2026 Goods Trade Forecast to 3.9% on AI Demand

The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its 2026 forecast for global merchandise-trade growth to 3.9%, saying demand for artificial-intelligence infrastructure is supporting goods trade despite disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

The new projection is up from the WTO’s March baseline of 1.9%. The organization also raised its 2027 merchandise-trade growth forecast to 4.1% from 2.6%.

Merchandise trade expanded 3.5% year over year in the first half of 2026. Trade in AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers, increased 67% during the period as investment in data-center and computing infrastructure supported global demand.

The stronger goods outlook contrasts with a weaker projection for commercial-services trade. The WTO lowered its 2026 services-growth forecast to 3.3% from 4.8%.

Global gross domestic product is expected to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. The outlook reflects continued pressure from energy and fertilizer-market disruptions associated with the Middle East conflict.

During the first six months of 2026, LNG shipments from the Middle East dropped 47%, and the region’s crude-oil shipments fell by almost 25%.

Supply from other exporters limited the global declines to about 1% for LNG and 6% for crude oil.

The WTO’s September Goods Trade Barometer registered 102.0, a reading consistent with above-trend trade. Electronic components posted a 104.9 reading, while container shipping remained slightly below trend.

The figures point to a split in global trade conditions: physical goods tied to AI infrastructure are expanding rapidly, while services and parts of the transport system remain weaker.

The updated forecasts provide the WTO’s current baseline for trade growth through 2027.