Carlyle Recommends 15% Cap on AI-Related Private Credit Exposure

Carlyle is urging private credit lenders to cap AI-related exposure at 15%, warning that concentrated lending could repeat the overexposure seen with software-as-a-service companies earlier this year and produce similar losses.

Jason Thomas of Carlyle said lenders should set the limit before the AI buildout accelerates further. The firm also recommends demanding higher premiums on exposure above the threshold.

Carlyle’s concerns include AI data-center investments, where present-value margins could narrow quickly. The projected economic value of those projects may also prove optimistic relative to their costs, particularly if AI labs that have yet to become profitable lose access to capital.

The warning comes as Nvidia pursues financing platforms intended to bring more private capital into AI computing infrastructure. Nvidia said Aug. 10, 2026, that it had signed memorandums of understanding with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish platforms intended to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital over time.

Carlyle said lenders should set concentration limits before financing activity expands further, reflecting concern that expected returns from AI infrastructure may not justify construction costs.