SpaceX Shares Fall 4.9% as Analyst Flags Starlink Risks to Apple

SpaceX shares fell 4.9% over five trading sessions as an Oct. 9 share-release eligibility date coincided with renewed attention on Starlink’s planned U.S. mobile expansion and potential pressure on Apple.

The shares closed at $163.46 at 4 p.m. ET (8 p.m. UTC) on Oct. 12, down from $171.92 on Oct. 6. Up to 328.4 million shares became eligible for release on Oct. 9, while a separate scheduled release date is listed for Oct. 24. The schedule does not establish that eligible shares were sold.

Analyst Wamsi Mohan identified three potential risks for Apple: pressure on wireless-carrier subsidy programs, competition from a possible SpaceX phone and an integrated Tesla-SpaceX ecosystem that includes Grok and artificial-intelligence services.

Mohan estimated that about 53 million iPhones are sold each year through the three largest U.S. wireless carriers, with average promotional credits of $800 per device. A 10% shift of major-carrier postpaid subscribers to SpaceX could reduce Apple sales by about five million iPhones and $6 billion in revenue, based on his estimate.

That scenario depends on Starlink attracting postpaid subscribers, carriers reducing iPhone promotions and SpaceX eventually offering a lower-cost phone. Mohan described the potential impact as greater if a Grok-powered phone succeeds and carriers reduce promotions across their remaining customer base.

SpaceX agreed Oct. 8 to acquire a nationwide portfolio of up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band. The transaction requires final Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approval. The low-band spectrum is intended to improve signal penetration through obstacles such as walls, while SpaceX’s existing 2 GHz spectrum would provide capacity.

SpaceX’s mobile strategy combines satellite-to-device service with terrestrial spectrum.

SpaceX’s initial public offering priced shares at $135 on June 11, with trading beginning June 12 under the ticker SPCX. The next scheduled share-release date, Oct. 24, falls on a Saturday, so the first regular trading session likely affected would be Oct. 26.