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NRF Projects U.S. Holiday Sales Will Rise 4.2% to $1.013 Trillion

The forecast covers November and December. Holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion in 2025.

Shoppers carrying plain paper bags pass warmly lit holiday storefront windows / TokenPost.ai
Shoppers carrying plain paper bags pass warmly lit holiday storefront windows / TokenPost.ai

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. retail sales in November and December 2026 to total $1.013 trillion, a projected 4.2% increase over the same months in 2025.

NRF released the forecast Oct. 15. It also put 2025 holiday sales at $972 billion, up 3.1%.

A separate holiday-sales outlook projected 4.5% growth. The new forecast covers November and December.

John Kim

John Kim reports on the digital-asset business for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to info@tokenpost.com.

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